It's hard being a contrarian

Day 889 - Day 379 Q - Mar.24.21 - It’s hard being a contrarian

‍

It’s hard to be a contrarian. It’s hard to go against the consensus. It’s hard to sit there and think everyone could be wrong. People you look up to or have so much more credibility than you and think their opinion is worth more than your own. It’s hard to think for yourself, particularly in today’s society where we can just adopt what smart people are saying. It’s hard to decipher who’s spewing bullshit and who’s come to their own conclusions. The last decade has been an incredible bull run where you’ve had companies, even shitty ones, continue to get huge market caps and valuations. Had a convo today about what the private market is in biotech and it’s so bubbly. It’s so overvalued. Right now it seems that everything is going right but over time, that will not hold up. For everything that goes up must come down. Life is a cycle. For every good thing there’s an equal and opposite force. Long term innovation eventually leads the market up but in the short term there are cycles. We’re at the peak of one now. It’s hard to be a contrarian thickener because people think you’re crazy. People have no idea how or what you think. They’re so focused on the short term that they’ll do anything to cause a stir. FOMO is a real paradigm that dictates how people act and if you don’t understand human psychology, you’ll never understand what’s happening now! We’re in a unique period unlike anything we’ve ever seen before but to bet against the world is hard. Time will tell and maybe you’ll be vindicated. No matter what, keep being a contrarian and arriving at your own conclusions.