War has begun

War has begun:

War has begun.

Russia just launched military operations in Ukraine.

You can hear bombs from Kyiv, the capital city.

Biden, you’re on the clock.

How this will unfold is anyone’s guess, but here’s what I’m thinking.

Oil, commodities, gold, silver and food futures are going to spike exacerbating inflation.

The market is finished.

This won’t happen quickly but watch it be bloody while everything deleverages.

Banks are going to be stressed.

And I haven’t mentioned the meme stocks.

Hedge funds and market makers are shitting their pants right now.

They know the game is almost up.

When that happens, the whole world will see.

How do a few stocks shoot up to the moon while everything else bleeds?

Because Wall Street.

Because naked shorting.

Because hedge funds.

Because market makers.

Because Citadel.

Because prime brokerage houses.

Because total return swaps.

Because crime.

It will all be exposed soon, then what?

America could descend into chaos and possible dictatorship.

The boomers who have studied history like Ray Dalio and Charlie Munger know what path America is going.

It’s not positive.

How everything unfolds is anyone’s guess but they know the path is not peaceful and positive.

Now you bring war into this in Ukraine and possibly China going after Taiwan, along with civil unrest and a market crash?

It’s literally the 1930s all over again.

The problem is today we can’t have that world because too many countries have nuclear weapons.

Multiple countries did not have that power before.

Now we do.

This is why I’m so scared to write about this sometimes.

History is pretty clear.

When you have massive debts, you get inflation or default.

Every currency in history has failed. Every single one.

Either through hyperinflation or default.

With that comes a lot of conflict and turmoil.

War.

We are at the end of a long-term debt cycle that typically lasts 80-100 years.

Now it’s here because inflation is running hot.

It means the Fed has to raise rates but they can’t because the market would crumble.

Everything is over-leveraged.

So they could keep QE going.

Then you have hyperinflation and if that happens, there will be conflict around the world.

Many countries have pegged currencies to the US dollar. 

Inflation in their backyard is even worse than it is if you live in the West.

As Charlie Munger said ‘you could argue inflation is how democracies die.’ 

The ideal would be for the market to crash regardless so they don’t have to do anything, but that will still cause massive turmoil around the world.

Either option is not great yet history tells us this is how it’s worked out.

Every bubble eventually bursts and this one will be no different.

When bubbles do burst, conflict arises and wars can happen.

War has begun.

How it goes is anyone’s guess.